Who Knows?

The Security Council voted last night to authorize yet another ceasefire in the Middle East; UN Resolution 1701. It was revealed that Israel would continue on in Lebanon until the Lebanese army assisted by a UN force of up to 15,000 men took over security. Hesbollah is barely mentioned in the resolution but UN 1559, calling for the disarmament of all militias must be enforced.

This resolution is a joke. Both the BBC and the Jerusalem Post report that there is no authorization of UN Force:
From the Jerusalem Post:
The text of the resolution does not specify under which chapter of the UN Charter the force would be authorized. Instead, it says the force's mandate includes several elements: monitoring the cessation of hostilities, accompanying Lebanese troops as they deploy and as Israel withdraws, and ensuring humanitarian access.

The UN force, known by its acronym UNIFIL, will help coordinate the deployment of Lebanese forces to the south. Israeli troops that have occupied the area in more than four weeks of fighting would then withdraw.

UN troops (up to max 15,000) are authorized to assist the Lebanese Army. They are not authorized to disarm anyone. No one is going to take Hesbollahs weapons and it's a safe bet that Hesbollah are not going to just give them up. If they do, it's a charade and the Lebanese Gov't is as duplicitous as their former colonial master, France.

So, up to a maximum of 15,000 UN Troops will chaffeur Lebanon's Army to SL and watch as Hesbollah gives up it arms.

Yeah Right!

This is what you get with liberalism. The likes of Olmert or John Kerry.

I'll predict that France never gets to Lebanon. The Hezzi's think they smell blood and are not going to allow themselves to be disarmed anyway. I suspect that this is all for show. Neither Israel nor the US expect it to work but it will show the UN who the reasonable parties are.

Mixed Signals and no Clear Direction

I'm not tossing in the towel, but...(the ubiquitous but) things don't look too good right now. Nobody knows where we are going. Too many confusing signals. The Bush Administration has not done a good job of leading the country. Is it a war or not? Will Iraq stabilize or not? Will Amadenijad be challenged or not? A mad man constantly threatens annihilation of first Israel then the US and we seem to have no plan or world support. Bush has flatly stated that Iran will not have nuclear weapons but are those empty, regrettable words? We just don't know and if Israel has indeed been exposed will that embolden the Islamists?

If anyone could figure out what was going from one day to the next with the way Israel conducted its adventure into Lebanon, I would like to hear it. I have never witnessed anything so disjointed or senseless as the surreal movie that we just watched and whose plot I couldn't follow. Olmert and his generals must go. I don't think he will last long and I will be interested to see the reaction on the Israeli street. If Netanyahu becomes publically critical, you know Israel's foray into Lebanon was a charley foxtrot. If we don't hear from Netanyahu, then something’s up and there is more to this than meets the eye.

I would offer that Bush and Condi gave Olmert a tremendous cover and a long leash for a long time. Initially, I was sure that this was in preparation for the bigger upcoming event to the East. I wouldn't be surprised that as Olmert showed a lack of spine, Bush pulled the plug and went for the deal. I heard that there were rumors of a near mutiny/coup by Israeli Brass. If this is true, the situation was untenable with Olmert in place and the powers that be decided to back off for now.

Who knows?
Iraq and Iran
I don't doubt that we will eventually prevail against the Islamic fascists, but we have certainly miscalculated especially in Iraq. It's time to turn up the heat on al-Maliki. He either turns his army loose on al Sadr and others or we ease on out and let them have at each other.

I have no idea what happens with Iran but to do nothing is unthinkable.

It's all a joke! The UN, Hamas in Palestine, Hesbollah in Lebanon; both Islamist militias in league with duplicitous governments answering to the puppet master in Iran. Meanwhile, al-Maliki fiddles while Iraq burns and the UN keeps on giving.

Lebanon could be a big setback against Iran which seems to be very adept at manipulating events. The consequences and costs of Olmerts appatent indecisiveness remain to be seen and paid.

So much for bringing freedom to the Muslim world.

PaulDanish commenting over at The Belmont Club offered this ecouragement.

Well, it ain't over 'til its over, and I'm not so sure resolution 1701 means its over.

There's enough wiggle room in this thing to allow Israel to keep on fighting for a substantial amount of time, and it looks less and less like it will stop until, at a minimum, it reaches the Litani. As a practical matter, there's no way to make it stop until the French blue helmets arrive. That could take a while, if for no other reason that it's going to be tough to find a functioning airport in Lebanon.

I don't think the IDF will continue to be held up by Hez. If you look closely, it seems to be adopting new tactics. Judging by the tape of men going into battle the IDF is using infantry instead of armor. Since the Hez cells seem to be organized to stop armor and mechanized infantry, this could be a vulnerability. It would be interesting to know if Hez cells have medium machine guns. If they don't they might be at something of a disadvantage against dismounted infrantry. (The very heavy artillery barrages that are being reported may be the IDF walking infantry into battle.) All this is important, because nothing changes perceptions and the political balance of force than success on the battle field.

I think it's highly likely the war will end with the IDF on the Litani if not somewhat beyond and that the New Improved UNIFIL may not deploy for a long time. Truth is neither the French nor any other Euros are much interested in dying in order to keep Arabs and Jews from killing each other. They are not going to show up until everyone is ready to stop fighting, and they're not going to try very hard to force anyone to.

Resolution 1701 is a Chapter 6 resolution. That makes compliance and enforcement pretty flaccid. (It kinda reminds of the old Cold War joke told by workers in Communist Countries: "They pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work."
Interestingly, it was turned into a Chapter 6 at the insistance of the Lebanese government. That is being widely taken to mean that the Lebanese wanted to prevent anyone from getting in the way of Hezbollah attacking Israel, but it could just as easily mean that it was because the Lebanese government wanted to prevent anyone from getting in the way of Israel attacking Hezbollah. Unintended or not, that's a pretty unavoidable consequence of it.

It may be that 1701, borrow a phrase from Mark Twain, is like Wagner's music. It's better than it sounds.